Could USAPL's New Global Powerlifting Federation Kill the IPF?
I suspect there's a strong opportunity for USAPL to eat into the IPF's pool of lifters.
As anticipated, the USAPL-IPF split has been cemented into reality. On the 8th of November, the International Powerlifting Federation (IPF) held a vote on the expulsion of USA Powerlifting (USAPL), and 23 of 27 nations present (out of over 150 total member nations) unanimously voted in favor of expulsion (the remaining 4 abstained from voting).
As outlined previously, the schism comes as a consequence of an ideological divergence between the IPF and USAPL. Ultimately, the federations could not come to an agreement on a fundamental ethical dilemma: do you prioritize signatory status with World Anti-Doping Agency (WADA) and incur more expensive, less frequent, and therefore, arguably less effective drug tests; or do you abandon your relationship with WADA and the International Olympic Committee (IOC) for the sake of sustaining your drug-free ethos?
USAPL proposed several compromises to no avail. For instance, they proposed an “Olympic model” of testing, where only those lifters who qualify for IPF-level events are subject to WADA testing, similarly to how organizations like the NBA send players to the Olympics. But their pleas fell upon deaf ears. The IPF, in what appeared to be a blatant exercise of unchecked power, would not hear it, and instead scrambled to stage a hasty vote to expel USAPL after years of bubbling conflict. As a result, USAPL has announced its plans to take its new Pro Series to the world stage, bringing the most powerful incentive of all: big cash prizes. The IPF’s callous zeal for the Olympics at the expense of a level playing field may prove to be its downfall in the face of an emboldened and international USAPL.
Drug Testing in the IPF Is Abysmal
As alluded to in the previous article, drug testing in the IPF happens to be abysmal. But I think it helps to demonstrate how bad it is with statistics. Thankfully, Jonnie Candito has done a lot of work to collect the hard data. I certainly recommend you check out his latest video on the story after you finish reading this.
In 2019, USAPL tested about 18.9% of all lifters. If you only include WADA-compliant tests, USAPL’s rate is about 4.4%, which, while low, still surpasses many top nations’ overall testing rate. 3.1% of lifters experienced out-of-meet testing, all of which were WADA-compliant. Candito makes a strong comparison to Canada, which is geographically and culturally similar to the United States, yet tests at a rate of under 5%, only performing out-of-meet tests for 1.8% of lifters.
45% of all member nations in the IPF appeared to perform 0 testing according to the data.
Here is a testing rate comparison between the top 5 nations by IPF points in 2019:
According to USAPL, it would cost an extra $2 million per year to continue testing at the same rate under WADA-compliant standards, which appears to be supported by an invoice for an IPF test included in Candito’s video, highlighting the exorbitant and perhaps even questionable costs of testing and personnel:
Even if you don’t buy USAPL’s sentiment that it needs to test this much to preserve the integrity of the sport, it does not change that fact that there can be no level playing field at the international level when many countries perform little to no testing. Often times, these countries are top performers in the sport, have plenty of money, or have incredibly high rates of positivity among their tiny pools of tested athletes. Iran, for instance, had a 100% positivity rate for all 3 lifters that were tested in 2019. In such a scenario, drug-free lifters will likely choose to align with a federation which more strongly supports their personal desire to compete in a more level playing field.
A Post-Pandemic Shake-Up
When you take a look at the participation data in powerlifting, the popularity of the sport has significantly contracted during 2020 through to 2021, no doubt as a consequence of the pandemic and the lockdowns that have ensued as a result. Take a look at the data:
Whilst the data collected for 2021 is technically incomplete seeing as there are still a couple of months to go, it is interesting to note that IPF participation continues to decline or perhaps flatline when all is said and done, while USAPL has begun to rebound. It’s possible to chalk this up to several variables, including stricter lockdowns in some member nations as compared to the US, but it is still worth noting.
Regardless, participation is still far below peak levels from prior years. As powerlifting participation continues to rebound in tandem with the world reopening, crisis and contraction give way to opportunity. With a fledging global organization that is offering competitive cash prizes and a more level playing field, there has never been a better time for USAPL to eat into the IPF’s market share and entice other nations’ lifters to abandon the old federation. Not to mention, USAPL’s divergence from the IPF is guaranteed to, at least, eat into the participation of US athletes in the IPF’s new member federation. The US represents a huge chunk of the competitors at international-level IPF events, as evidenced by these 10 countries who sent the most number of lifters to IPF Worlds in 2019:
No matter how you slice it, an already-anemic IPF will certainly suffer under this new global powerlifting order when a good chunk of their largest pool of lifters is likely to strand them.
The Olympic Dream Is a Delusion
At the crux of the IPF’s decision to appease WADA and remain a signatory is the notion that they can one day become a governing body for powerlifting as an Olympic sport. Many have balked at this pipe dream, and for good reason. Considering most of the newer sports coming to the Olympics are softer sports, and the current sport of Olympic Weightlifting is on the chopping block for rampant drug use, it’s not likely that the IOC will accept a new strength sport into the mix. The IOC has recently reduced the size of Olympic Weightlifting to incur greater accountability for drug usage. Between the 2008 and 2012 Olympics, 61 lifters were busted via retrospective testing out of 515 total competitors. The idea that the IOC would be open to including a sport with perhaps even more rampant drug usage when their current strength sport rendition is crumbling is absurd. Laying waste to the ideals of the sport in the name of appeasing the monopolistic governing body of the Olympics, all of that to say it would be in vain, is not a great hill for the IPF to die on.
USAPL has a legitimate opportunity here to offer a compelling alternative to the IPF. At the very least, the schism will split or shrink the IPF’s largest member nation and therefore weaken their control over the sport. Their hubris is blinding them from an immediately evident risk of fading into obscurity; rather than derisively rushing to expedite USAPL’s exit, they’d have been wise to hear out a compromise on the matter. Now, they may have spurred their own demise. Only time will tell, but with the recent endorsement of USAPL by many top American lifters, it’s already not looking so good for the IPF.
This did NOT age well